Publications
1 The Australian Golf Handicap System - March 2011
In March 2010 a new handicap system was introduced into the Australian Golf world. There was some controversy as to whether the new system provided an "equitable" playing field. We were requested by the peak Golf Organisation in Australia, Golf Australia, to analyse and report on the state of play.
Using a sample of one million rounds of golf from the GolfLink system, for over 27,000 competitions involving over 400,000 golfers, an analysis was completed and reported on.
Using a sample of one million rounds of golf from the GolfLink system, for over 27,000 competitions involving over 400,000 golfers, an analysis was completed and reported on.
The Australian Golf Handicap System - March 2011 | |
File Size: | 2925 kb |
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2.1 Handicap Modelling - May 2011 - Executive Highlights
Following on from the first report, which found that the new system had issues, the next analysis related to how to fix it. There were many suggested options for change.
Fifteen clubs were chosen as representative. Each of the club’s home competitions was recalculated on the various different handicap methods, using data from December 2007 through November 2010.
This Highlights Report is a four page summary of the results.
Fifteen clubs were chosen as representative. Each of the club’s home competitions was recalculated on the various different handicap methods, using data from December 2007 through November 2010.
This Highlights Report is a four page summary of the results.
Handicap Modelling - May 2011 - Executive Highlights | |
File Size: | 546 kb |
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2.2 Handicap Modelling - May 2011 - Executive Summary
This 38 page Executive Summary sets out a fuller analysis - which led to the adoption of the recommended solution for all golf competitions in Australia.
Handicap Modelling - May 2011 - Executive Summary | |
File Size: | 1760 kb |
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2.3 Handicap Modelling - May 2011
This is the full report, running to some 430 pages.
Handicap Modelling - May 2011 | |
File Size: | 10763 kb |
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3 Daily Scratch Rating - Sept 2012
After the new system had settled in, it was time to consider some additional features that had been mooted for some time. The main candidate here was what was called the Daily Scratch Rating (DSR). The theory behind this is principally the work of Dr Peter Preston; our role was to test the theory, write up the conclusions, and then devise a pilot scheme to test it in practice. This paper is the final version of what was implemented.
Daily Scratch Rating - Sept 2012 | |
File Size: | 6582 kb |
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4 Total Impact - Jan 2013
With DSR now an approved candidate for implementation, the final candidate was what was called "Slope". The analysis and reporting here involved modelling the "Total Impact" of all the changes on the handicap system and the equity expected as a result. Following this report, the system with all candidates, was approved to go live in January 2014.
Total Impact - Jan 2013 | |
File Size: | 7483 kb |
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5 Post Implementation Review - Aug 2016
The most recent study was to analyse the impact on competitiveness and equity since the implementation of the new system. This involves a massive dataset of some 27 million rounds of golf over 2013-2015. The analysis was conducted at a national, state and individual club level. Power Query and Power Pivot, two relatively new Business Intelligence tools which augment Excel, were used to tame the millions of rows of data.
www.golf.org.au/2016-stat-review
Here is an excerpt from the relevant letter from John Hopkins OAM, the Chairman - Golf Australia:
3 August 2016
To – All Australian Clubs
Dear All,
Subject: Update on Review & Monitoring of GA Handicap System
I am writing to update you on the work Golf Australia has been performing to monitor and review the performance of the GA Handicap System. This work incorporates two major components. Firstly, an extensive statistical analysis. And secondly, the handicapping survey of all Australian clubs that was conducted earlier this year.
Statistical Analysis
GA’s statistical consultant, Statistical Solutions (www.StatisticalSolutions.com.au), has analysed all rounds submitted to GOLF Link from January 2013 through to December 2015. This period includes the full year prior to the introduction in Australia of Slope, DSR, and Stableford handicapping of Stroke rounds, and also the two full years after their introduction.
The five key findings of this analysis are:
The detailed data tables can be accessed via the following webpage –
www.golf.org.au/2016-stat-review.
Yours sincerely,
John Hopkins OAM
Chairman – Golf Australia
www.golf.org.au/2016-stat-review
Here is an excerpt from the relevant letter from John Hopkins OAM, the Chairman - Golf Australia:
3 August 2016
To – All Australian Clubs
Dear All,
Subject: Update on Review & Monitoring of GA Handicap System
I am writing to update you on the work Golf Australia has been performing to monitor and review the performance of the GA Handicap System. This work incorporates two major components. Firstly, an extensive statistical analysis. And secondly, the handicapping survey of all Australian clubs that was conducted earlier this year.
Statistical Analysis
GA’s statistical consultant, Statistical Solutions (www.StatisticalSolutions.com.au), has analysed all rounds submitted to GOLF Link from January 2013 through to December 2015. This period includes the full year prior to the introduction in Australia of Slope, DSR, and Stableford handicapping of Stroke rounds, and also the two full years after their introduction.
The five key findings of this analysis are:
- Since the introduction in January 2014 of Slope, DSR, and Stableford handicapping of Stroke rounds, there has not been any significant change to ‘equity in competition results patterns’. 'Equity in competition results patterns’ means the balance of players at each handicap level who are winning competitions, and also who are finishing as placegetters in competitions.
- Overall across Australia, players of all handicap levels are winning close to their fair share of competitions, and players of all handicap levels are achieving close to their fair share of prizes in competitions. The profile of competition winners and prize winners does shift from season to season, from state to state, and even from club to club. There is a very small number of clubs that exhibit competition results patterns that are notably different to the national patterns – such outcomes can be the result for example of the unusual nature of a course, or of the profile of the membership (such clubs are always welcome to contact their state association to discuss potential solutions).
- Over the course of a year for women the current GA Handicap System produces a slight bias towards players with single-figure handicaps. This is the case when equity is measured by the chance of a golfer to finish as a placegetter in a competition, and also when equity is measured by the chance of a golfer to win the competition.
- Over the course of a year for men the current GA Handicap System produces a slight bias towards players with single-figure handicaps when equity is measured by the chance of a golfer to finish as a placegetter in a competition. The reverse is true when equity is measured by the chance of a golfer to win the competition – in this case the bias is slightly towards players with high handicaps.(Note: If GA was to fine-tune the handicap system to further enhance the chances of male single-figure players winning competitions, a direct side effect would be to create a severe bias towards the chance a single-figure player to finish as a placegetter in a competition.)
- The competiveness of players with single figure handicaps improves in winter whereas the competitiveness of players with high handicaps improves in summer. This effect is more notable in the southern states.
The detailed data tables can be accessed via the following webpage –
www.golf.org.au/2016-stat-review.
Yours sincerely,
John Hopkins OAM
Chairman – Golf Australia